At least according to the latest plug-in analysis from Pike Research
President Obama’s goal of 1 million US plug-in sales by 2015 will not be met, at least based on a new Pike Research Report. Instead, total US plug-in sales through 2015 should reach about 410,000 plug-in vehicles. However, 1 million US plug-in sales should be achieved in 2018.
Overall, according to Pike, plug-in adoption — at least through 2020 — is going to be slower than expected, or at least expected by early advocates.
While some had hoped breakthroughs in the battery industry would enable cheaper battery prices, Pike sees no reason for such optimism through the next 5 — 6 years. Along those lines, Pike notes that automakers are now proceeding towards plug-in sales at a very “measured” pace.
Worldwide plug-in sales are expected to reach about 1.7 percent market share by 2020, with the US as the top sale’s market much of the way. However, as 2020 nears, China will probably surpass the US, as Asia begins to dominate overall plug-in sales.
Interestingly, while the US will lead plug-in sales through most of this decade, plug-in hybrids will sell much better than battery electric cars in the US. In Asia — and largely the future of the auto industry — battery electrics; however, will dominate sales. European plug-in preferences are expected to fall somewhere in between.