Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid more profitable than the Volt or the Leaf?
Which automaker will achieve the most bang for the battery-powered buck?
Today, hybrid cars represent about 2.4 percent of auto sales in the US. While plug-ins aren’t even yet a blip on the sale’s radar screen, that should change now that plug-ins are finally hitting sale’s floors.
So, let’s take a look at some of the recent battery-powered forecasts from the world’s top automakers.
Today, 8 percent of all Toyota vehicles sold in the US are hybrids. In terms of hybrid sales no other automaker is even on the same playing field and Toyota is just getting started. By 2020 Toyota believes the Prius will outsell the Toyota Camry, and that hybrid and plug-in sales will account for between 20 and 30 percent of all Toyota sales. Most sales, however, will be hybrids followed by plug-ins and then pure battery electric cars.
Recently, Ford also reiterated their hybrid forecast. By 2020 Ford believes 15 — 25 percent of sales will be battery-powered. About 70 percent of those sales will be hybrids, another 20 percent will be plug-in hybrids and 5 percent will be electric cars.
Then comes Nissan, the pure battery electric car bull. By 2020, Nissan believes electric cars will achieve 10 percent penetration. Thus far, however, Nissan has been a hybrid bear, but it’s Ellure concept at the LA Auto Show, coupled with the new Infiniti M35 hybrid — Nissan’s first proprietary hybrid drive — suggest that Nissan might yet embrace hybrids as a bigger part of their battery-powered portfolio. So, eventually the Nissan forecast might rise. For now, however, 10 percent battery electric is Nissan’s best forecast.
Finally, GM has been relatively quiet about its long range forecasts. However, GM CEO Dan Akerson told some reporters at the Detroit Auto Show that GM was ready to embrace not just Chevy Volt technology, but also hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery electric cars as well. Additionally, Akerson forecast that hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electrics would account for 10 percent of GM sales in 10 to 15 years.
‘No way’, would probably be the response of JD Power. According to JD all battery-powered vehicles combined will achieve less than 10 percent penetration by 2020, with most being conventional hybrid cars. Thus, some of these forecasts seem over-the-top.
So, is GM the only one telling the truth? Is Toyota an aberration simply because of the Prius and there can be only one? Are 10 year forecasts meaningless?
Only time will tell, but if all these automakers achieve their forecasts, it seems that despite the early plug-in hype, Ford and Toyota will be the leaders of the battery-powered pack. On the other hand, if these forecasts are not achieved, Toyota is in the greatest danger of overselling and under-delivering, while GM could be in be the best position to undersell and over-deliver (gee, maybe GM has changed:)).
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