Can this car save Chrysler?
So, Big 3 automakers are at the Washington Auto Show trying to prove to the White House and Congress that they have the right technology to reduce foreign oil dependency and fight global warming?
But do they really?
Probably the most iconic example of next generation American auto technology is the Chevy Volt. Many, including this blogger, have called the Volt game-changing. However, I make that statement with one caveat: cost-effectiveness.
I have no doubts that the technology powering the Volt will be a success. I do, however, have some doubts that the Volt’s technology can achieve cost-effectiveness and cost-competitiveness. In fact, I don’t even think there is a chance of cost-efficiency without significantly higher fuel prices – probably much higher than what was experienced this past summer.
Moreover, perhaps the Volt is the wrong kind of technology for America’s problems. Maybe more conventional hybrid vehicles or plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a plug-in Escape hybrid, aren’t as technologically sophisticated, but they are simply more cost-effective. Or, just a better balance of upfront costs and long term fuel savings.
Today, there are just too many variables – too much uncertainty – to make predictions based on technology that not one automaker has yet sold in the real world. Besides, markets determine winners, not PR departments.
What is clear today, however, is that the Big 3 cannot cost-effectively compete at selling fuel efficient technology. So, why will the future be any different?
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