25,000 per year for years now
Last night I was watching an interesting NOVA program called The Big Energy Gamble and how AB 32 is going to drastically change the auto market in California. Essentially, if California moves forward with AB 32, automakers will need to sell many millions of hybrid cars or EVs in California alone, in order to meet CO2 emissions requirements.
And, there are many states considering similar laws if California’s continues to move forward.
Toyota, the king of hybrid cars, is well on its way to helping California meet its goals, and Honda is ramping up its hybrid production as well, although even Honda has some serious work ahead.
The Big 3, on the other hand, seem pathetically far behind. Possibly, Ford has some plans, but as the automaker has only been able to make 25,000 Escape hybrids per year, and has the same 25,000 cap for the Fusion hybrid, I have some serious worries. Sadly, GM and Chrysler seem even further behind.
Yet, as the bailout deadline approaches, the UAW is already calling on Obama for help. If this were the end of all bailout talk, a little extension wouldn’t be a bad idea, but this is just the beginning.
GM’s latest prediction for 2009 auto sales, for example, is even worse than 2008. According to Big 3 Congressional bailout testimony, GM’s prediction for 2009 is unsustainable if it continues for a few years, regardless of any bailout money. UNSUSTAINABLE. The auto industry, as we know it today, would collapse.
Even if things get better, the Big 3 are still in no position to make a serious stab at fuel economy, especially if the requirement is as aggressive as AB32 – something Obama has supported. According to an economist from Moody’s during Congressional testimony on the bailout, the US auto industry will need about 100 billion over the next few years just to survive.
How much more it take to make the Big 3 green?
Not one of the Big 3 has yet developed a cheap hybrid to challenge the Prius. Do they really believe that millions of Americans are going to be able to afford ,000 Volts in five years? Will GM even be making 100,000 Volts per year by then?
President Obama’s plans for an energy moon shot should move forward, and I’m sure it will, but should our moon shot be limited to the Big 3′s ability to make it happen? Might it not be better, for instance, for the government to regulate standards and requirements, put all incentives in the hands of consumers, and let ALL automakers COMPETE for consumers, even if it means the UAW loses 1/2 its workforce because its products don’t compete?
Or, should Obama save the Big 3 at any and all costs and make the Big 3 essential to our moon shot?
Yes, I agree with your cautionary note about giving direct aid to the Big 3. I would prefer to see all the incentives directed towards the consumer—-the hard-pressed tax-payers who are now bearing the brunt of an economic collapse they did not create. Let’s help Joe six-pack drive green, rather than giving more corporate welfare to Big Auto. All industries are of their time—when they are in tune with their times, they succeed and when they fall out of step, they become obsolete. There is a logic and a natural justice to this. Let the Big 3 get their act together if they want to survive in a new green economy. As Obama said, “the world has changed, and we have to change with
it”. And so does Big Auto!